AI Job Creation, AI Job Destruction
Trying to make sense of it all
I have been writing this newsletter for 5 months now, and I believe I am finally understanding its purpose. Initially, I started it at the request of one of my students who wanted me to continue sharing the links I had been posting for the class. I only wanted to share information about the cool new tools I was discovering. However, I now realize that this newsletter is an exploration of something deeper.
I feel that we are currently experiencing a massive cultural and technological revolution that will have a greater impact than the internet, smartphones, social media, or any other advancements brought to us by big tech in recent years. My job title is listed as ‘Vocational tech’, so it is my responsibility to help my students find employment. Therefore, my goal now is to determine which jobs will remain and what new skills will be required in this rapidly changing world.
I am not an economist, a data scientist, or an expert. However, I have a pretty good track record of predicting trends in tech over the last two decades. I do not claim to have all the answers, so if you have any insights or opinions, I would love to hear them.
Investing in AI
Currently, there is a significant wave of investment in major AI players, likely reaching close to $20 billion. Additionally, venture capital is investing in multiple smaller AI players, albeit in smaller amounts, measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars. While the hardware is expensive and training the models requires time and effort, profitability remains a challenge to define. Various articles, such as this one in TechCrunch, refer to this trend as a ‘Proxy war’ or an “AI arms race,” where no one wants to give up ground in the race for market dominance.
Similar situations occurred 25 years ago with the rise of NASDAQ’s insane valuations and a few years ago with the Crypto and NFT crazes. In those instances, it did not matter if a product made sense as long as it received investor funding… until the funding ran out. Until recently, these companies hired graphic designers, copywriters, ad agencies, PR firms, and other creative professionals. However, it seems that we are now entering a new era. Every bootstrapped startup that has been reading Lean UX over the last decade might now be thinking, “Let’s see if we can save some money and use generative AI.” Perhaps larger firms or those with deeper pockets will still opt for premium design and stick with the agencies they have established relationships with. However, these agencies are now facing competition from upstarts who can offer lower prices by utilizing generative AI.
This is still speculative on my part, but it appears that in the near future, much of the highly valued ‘creative work’ required to launch a tech company can be done by an in-house team, contracted to a cheaper vendor, or automated. While tools like Dalle-3 and Midjourney may not be able to create a decent logo or data visualization yet, they can save designers valuable hours in the initial phases. When I asked Google’s Bard for a prediction regarding this matter in 2024, I received a long and carefully worded response, part of which is quoted below:
The impact of AI on graphic design and creative industry jobs is likely to be more nuanced than a simple decline or displacement. AI will undoubtedly play an increasingly important role in the creative process, but it is unlikely to replace the unique human qualities that make graphic designers and creative professionals so valuable. Instead, AI is more likely to augment and transform these roles, creating new opportunities for creative professionals to leverage technology to enhance their skills and deliver even more impactful work.
Claude and ChatGPT provided similar responses that can be summarized as follows: If a job is simple, repetitive, or not highly skilled, it is likely being replaced by some form of automation. This, in theory, will free up skilled or senior designers to solve more complex problems that require design for emotion or cultural context. Additionally, a new wave of tools will make design more accessible to a broader range of participants and create new opportunities for experienced practitioners. Most sources I’ve looked at predict that creatives will need to adapt and work alongside AI or develop new skills and become familiar with new tools.
Let’s pause for a moment and see if we can figure out which jobs are here to stay. Branding seems pretty safe, because it’s nuanced, and depends on emotion and storytelling. If you you’re a creative director or a strategic consultant, your job is probably secure. The same goes for advertising; if you’re the big idea person or a concept artist, you’re probably secure. UX designers, with the focus on human factors and problem solving will stick around for awhile as well. Packaging designers will still be in demand since AI can’t produce a die-line or any kind of print material (yet).
When I asked ChatGPT for a list of the most resilient positions, it came up with a similar response. It also included Client Relationship Managers because they require a deep understanding of client needs, relationship-building, and personal service. And Interactive Designers because they specialize in interactive, immersive, or experiential design. As expected, the most vulnerable positions included entry level graphic designers, production designers, stock photography producers, and web designers.
In summary, this took away some of my doom and gloom and it looks like there still might be some jobs in the near future, but it seems like a difficult time for entry level designers. If you’re a recent graduate, or one of my current students, don’t despair. I still think there are opportunities, especially in the creator economy. If you’re young and curious and you have a passion for learning new tools, you can be on the cutting edge. This is not my last word on this subject and my pledge is to continue bringing you the most relevant information.